Posted on Monday, 9th November 2009 by admin
To say the current economic climate has been ‘thin on good news’ would be an understatement.
But here are two data points that represent definite uppers: first, monthly job losses have declined to about 190,000 — still large and unacceptable, using any macroeconomic model, but light years away from the 500,000 and 600,000 monthly job losses that characterized the financial crisis’ acute stage earlier this year.
Second, the hiring of temporary workers increased substantially in October to 34,000; what’s more, 44,000 temporary jobs have been added to the U.S. economy since July, according to data compiled by the U.S. Department of Labor. From January 2008 thru July 2009, an average of 44,000 temp positions were lost per month.
The significance of the above? Historically, a rise and sustained turnaround in temp jobs usually precedes an increase in overall employment. Basically, many companies (although by no means all companies) test-the-waters, if you will, by adding first temporary jobs, then formalizing those positions (and others) once it becomes clear that demand and improved commercial conditions are likely to endure.
Hence, if the increase in temporary hiring is sustained over months, that most likely means better days are ahead on the employment front — that the day of net, monthly job gains for the U.S. economy is getting closer and closer. And when it arrives, that day will be a very bright ray of light for investors, businesses, and employment-seeking citizens, alike.
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